A bright future?

I was recently watching the breakfast news on BBC television when they announced the lead story’that house prices had dropped by over 10.5% in the past year’. I don’t know about you, but this is a very big news story in my country because, from an early age, young people are encouraged to get onto the property ladder to buy a home.

The home becomes a symbol of success and security; it becomes a major asset. You may have heard the expression that an Englishman’s home is his castle, well, during that TV broadcast, I discovered the castle market ain’t what it used to be.

When the news tells us that the value of our home is 10.5% less than what it was 12 months ago, a nationwide gloom descends. Having been a television producer for the BBC in the past, I knew exactly what was going to happen next – immediately we get a panel of experts who come and explain to us why this has happened. They have impressive titles and work in globablly recognised companies … the collective brain-power of this panel I imagine could (maybe) pass a nmber of high school maths tests!

They didn’t predict it a year ago.

They were not writing ground-breaking books on the property market cycle of boom and bust.

They were not predicting this period of economic readjustment (which sounds a lot better than recession – so get used to hearing it) because they didn’t see it coming.

Like everyone else, they hoped everything would be fine.

Now, let me add in my topic in which I am considered an expert. I get invited to radio and television programmes to add a soundbite. I get interviewed for newspaper and magazine articles, because of my subject knowledge. But I am very clear about one thing, you cannot predict the future. You can make best guesstimates (not a real word but it sounds good) as to future outcomes.

As far as I can tell, no media experts saw this ‘period of economic readjustment (catchy isn’t it) coming. But now that it is underway, the predictions are coming thick and fast, like Happy Hour at the Psychic Fair.

When economic experts were asked what they thought would happen over the next year, they all agreed that prices would continue to drop by another 15%. The studio newsreader listened with their most serous face and said: ‘It’s looking very grim’.

Yes, we can all be experts after the event, but in the final analysis no one knows for absolute certain what is going to happen. People can make informed guesses, but there are no cast-iron certainties.

Personally, I think the future is very bright, but then again, I always think the future is very bright. I put this down to being a cancer survivor and recognising that life and death are exactly that.

Everything else in this period of ‘economic readjustment’ are just events we experience. And how we manage those experiences determines how we ultimately succeed.

You focus on what you want to achieve over the next year or two.

Personally, I am thinking of investing in residential property, as I think the prices are going to go back up soon….